A Bayesian Learning Based Scheme for Online Dynamic Security Assessment and Preventive Control

In this paper, a two-stage Bayesian learning-based approach is proposed to enable online dynamic security assessment (DSA) and preventive control in power systems. To develop a reliable data mining-based model for DSA, the Bayesian neural network is learned by Bayes by Backprop to detect the security status in real-time and to inform the system operators with the confidence of the prediction. For dynamic insecurity prevention, the security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF) model incorporating the Bayesian neural network based security constraints is proposed, which is solved by the derivation-free Bayesian optimization. Case studies on the IEEE 39-bus system show that the Bayesian neural network is able to detect the security status of the power system correctly and reliably and is able to avoid the over-fitting problem compared with the traditional point estimation neural network. Also, Bayesian optimization is able to solve the non-analytical SCOPF model efficiently to mitigate the dynamic insecurity by preventive generation rescheduling.