Performance of SOFC and PEMFC Auxiliary Power Systems Under Alternative Fuel Pathways for Bulk Carriers

Fuel cell technologies are increasingly investigated as alternatives to conventional auxiliary diesel generators in order to enhance shipboard energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This study presents a unified and uncertainty-driven system-level assessment of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) and proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) systems operating as auxiliary power sources on a 200 m bulk carrier. Both technologies are evaluated under identical vessel characteristics, operating profiles, auxiliary load levels (360–600 kW), and cost assumptions, and are benchmarked directly against a conventional three–diesel-generator configuration. A modular numerical framework is developed to model propulsion–auxiliary interactions for ship speeds between 10 and 14 knots. SOFC systems are assessed using grey, bio-derived, and green natural gas pathways, while PEMFC systems are examined under grey, blue, and green hydrogen supply routes. Performance indicators include annual fuel consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction, net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), payback period (PBP), and marginal abatement cost (MAC). Economic uncertainty is explicitly embedded in the framework through Monte Carlo simulation, where fuel prices (±20%) and capital costs are sampled across defined ranges, generating probabilistic distributions rather than single deterministic estimates. This uncertainty-centred approach enables assessment of robustness, downside risk, and probability of profitability. Results show that replacing a single operating 600 kW diesel generator with fuel cell systems reduces auxiliary fuel energy demand by 25–35% for SOFC and approximately 15–25% for PEMFC relative to the diesel benchmark. Annual CO2 reductions range from 1. 1 to 1. 3 kt for SOFC systems and 1. 8–2. 8 kt for PEMFC configurations. Under grey fuel pathways, median NPVs reach approximately 2–4. 5 M for SOFC and 9–17 M for PEMFC as load increases, with IRRs exceeding 15% and 30%, respectively. Transitional pathways exhibit narrower margins, while renewable pathways remain more sensitive to fuel price variability. The findings demonstrate that fuel pathway cost dominates lifecycle outcomes under uncertainty and that hydrogen-based PEMFC systems exhibit the strongest economic resilience within the examined market ranges. The framework provides structured, uncertainty-aware decision support and establishes a foundation for integration into model-based systems engineering (MBSE) environments for early stage ship energy system design.