ABSTRACT This paper revisits the political and institutional development of England from the Magna Carta to the Glorious Revolution. I argue that institutional change in this period is best understood through the lens of coalition formation. Political elites had heterogeneous preferences over first two, and then three, recurring axes of disagreement: constitutional prerogatives, foreign policy, and after the Reformation, religion. Institutional change occurred when shocks caused coalitions to form, fracture, and realign. I discuss three episodes. First, due to defeat in France, a baronial coalition was able to check the power of the king through the Magna Carta. Second, the Reformation introduced religion as a new axis of conflict, ultimately giving rise to organized political parties during the Exclusion Crisis of 1679–1681. Third, the Glorious Revolution succeeded when James II's pro‐Catholic policies shattered the Tory coalition that had sustained the late Stuart monarchy. Using data on 750 Exclusion Crisis MPs, I document the structure of these political alignments empirically, and discuss how the defection of Tory elites was decisive in 1688.
Mark Koyama (2026) studied this question.