Study on spatiotemporal changes of wetlands based on PLS-SEM and PLUS model: The case of the Sanjiang Plain

• Using multiple models to analyze the driving mechanisms of wetland spatiotemporal changes. • The natural wetlands in the research area have decreased by 20 % in the past 30 years. • PLS-SEM reveals the interactive mechanism between natural conditions and human activities on wetland changes. • Urbanization and climate change play a negative role in the indirect effects of wetland changes. • The trend of wetland degradation is inevitable in different development scenarios. Wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems and play crucial roles in relation to biodiversity conservation and various ecosystem services. However, rapid urbanization and environmental changes have led to the loss of a significant number of wetlands, making it imperative to understand the driving forces behind wetland changes. This study employed Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to investigate the influences of natural factors and urbanization on wetland distribution. Based on the driving factors, simulations were conducted for three scenarios—Natural Increase Scenario (NIS), Economic Development Scenario (EDS), and Wetland Protection Scenario (WPS)—projecting the wetland distribution in the Sanjiang Plain until 2050. Results indicate that from 1990 to 2020, the wetland area increased by 9,548.58 km 2 , with paddy fields increasing by 12,995.73 km 2 and marsh wetlands decreasing by 1,031.9 km 2 . The factors driving wetland distribution varied across different periods. Between 1990 and 2000, topography and urbanization significantly influenced wetland distribution, whereas climate factors became gradually more significant between 2010 and 2020. Furthermore, in addition to exerting direct impacts on wetland distribution, urbanization and climate factors can indirectly affect wetland distribution by influencing topography and soil. Future development scenarios indicate an inevitable increase in paddy field areas and decrease in wetland areas. This framework provides an effective approach for exploring regional wetland changes and supporting regional wetland conservation and future sustainable development.