Forest change across the European Union: spatial patterns, drivers, and governance insights from a pan-European expert survey

Abstract Key message Forests in Europe are changing unevenly. Recovery dominates parts of Northern and Central Europe, while disturbance, degradation, and loss intensify in Southern and Eastern regions, and urbanization-driven fragmentation is spreading widely. A pan-European expert survey shows that climate and market pressures matter everywhere, but forest change outcomes depend most on governance capacity—enforcement, coordination, and regionally adapted incentives. Context European forests are central to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and ecosystem service provision, yet they are undergoing rapid and uneven change under climatic, economic, and land-use pressures. While inventories and remote sensing document large-scale trends, they provide limited understanding into governance changes and context-specific drivers affecting forest change across regions. Aims This study examines expert opinions on what forest changes are occurring across the EU, where they are concentrated, why they are taking place, and who the key actors moving these changes forward are. Methods A structured expert survey was conducted across all 27 EU Member States, collecting assessments on forest change types, spatial patterns, drivers, and governance arrangements. Responses were aggregated at the country level and analyzed using descriptive statistics and thematic coding within a PESTEL framework. Results Afforestation and reforestation dominate in Northern Europe and parts of Central Europe, while degradation, disturbance-driven losses, and deforestation pressures intensify in Southern and Eastern regions. Forest fragmentation linked to urbanization is increasingly pan-European. Climate change and market pressures were universally recognized, but forest change outcomes consistently depended on governance capacity, enforcement, and institutional coherence. National policymakers and the agricultural sector were identified as the most influential actors, with conflicts reported across all regions. Conclusion The findings indicate that European forest change trajectories are determined not only by changes in forest area but also by differences in governance capacity and institutional coherence. These results emphasize the importance of considering governance context when interpreting forest change patterns and designing regionally adapted policy responses.