Mission Profile-Based System-Level Reliability Prediction Method for Modular Multilevel Converters

This article proposes a mission profile-based reliability prediction method for modular multilevel converters (MMCs). It includes key modeling steps, such as long-term mission profile, analytical power loss models, system-level and component-level thermal modeling, lifetime modeling, Monte Carlo analysis, and redundancy analysis. Thermal couplings and uneven thermal stresses among submodules are considered. A case study of a 15-kVA down-scale MMC has been used to demonstrate the proposed method and validate the theoretical analysis. The outcomes serve as a first step for developing realistic reliability analysis and model-based design methods for full-scale MMCs in practical applications.