Scarce mineral resources: Extraction, consumption and limits of sustainability

The interests of the current and future generations concerning the access to and the use of geologically scarce mineral resources diverge. This article explores whether this apparent irreconcilability can be resolved. It is investigated how far the extraction rate of thirteen scarce raw materials can be reduced while simultaneously increasing the services they provide worldwide to the level prevailing in developed countries in 2020. The scarce raw materials considered are antimony, bismuth, boron, chromium, copper, gold, indium, molybdenum, nickel, silver, tin, tungsten, and zinc. Indicative estimates of how long these mineral resources will be available for humanity are calculated, assuming (1)the world population stabilizes at ten billion people, (2) the global service level of these resources attains that prevailing in developed countries in 2020 and (3) maximum resource-saving measures are taken. The conclusion is that immediate implementation of the most stringent resource-saving measures could extend the estimated exhaustion periods of most of the scarcest raw materials by an average factor of approximately four, even while simultaneously increasing the global service level of these resources by a factor four as well. Without sufficient and adequate resource saving measures it will be difficult or impossible for a substantial part of the future world population to attain the service level of mineral resources prevailing in developed countries at this moment. Moreover, without such measures, the period of time that future citizens of rich countries can continue enjoying the current service level of some of the scarcest mineral resources in their countries, will be severely limited.