Comparison of Different Prediction Models for the Indication of Implanted Cardioverter Defibrillator in Patients with Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy

Figures

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  Figure 1. Maximally selected rank statistic of 5 year arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) risk score to predict major combined events: the optimal threshold of 5 year ARVC score was >10%.

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  Figure 2. Kaplan–Meier survival free from event curves: in the left panel, Kaplan–Meier curves showed that patients with 5 year ARVC risk score >10% had worse prognosis than those with lower values of risk score. As showed in the middle panel, patients satisfying the International Task Force Consensus (ITFC) criteria had worse prognosis than those without. Finally, Kaplan–Meier curve of right panel demonstrated the prognostic role of Heart Rhythm Society (HRS) criteria.

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  Figure 3. Time‐dependent area under the curve (AUC) for predicting major combined endpoint: the time‐dependent AUC curves of the 5 year ARVC score (continuous variable), of the International Task Force Consensus (ITFC) algorithm, and of the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS) criteria are showed in the upper panels, respectively, from left to right. In the lower panels, the time‐dependent AUC difference between 5 year ARVC score and the ITFC, ARVC, and HRS criteria and between HRS and ITFC algorithm are showed.

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  Figure 4. Decision curve analysis of implanted cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) implantation for preventing the major combined endpoint. In the left panel, the net benefit curves of different thresholds of 5 year arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) risk score are compared, demonstrating that the >10% threshold had a higher net benefit compared with the other thresholds and to the ‘ICD to all the patients’ approach for a wide range of threshold probability, including the range of probability corresponding to the reported 5 year risk of sudden death in ARVC. In the right panels, the net benefit curves of the 5 year ARVC score >10%, of the International Task Force Consensus (ITFC) algorithm, and of the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS) criteria were compared. The 5 year ARVC score >10% had a greater net benefit than other models in a wide range of probability including the range of reported 5 year risk of sudden death of ARVC.