Assessing the impact of urban expansion on potential crop yield in China during 1990–2010

Rapid urbanization in China has raised great concerns regarding food security caused by conversion of limited cultivated land to urban use. In this study, the loss of potential crop yield due to urban expansion in China during 1990–2010 was calculated by the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) model. Over this period, potential yield decreased by approximately 34.90 million tons due to urban expansion, accounting for 6.52 % of China’s total actual production. The decrease was 13.07 and 21.83 million tons during the first and second decade, respectively. Key areas of lost potential yield were primarily in the Middle-lower Yangtze Plain and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. However, South China became a new key area of lost potential yield during the second decade. These findings provide useful information for the development of land use policy, protection of suitable arable land resources and urban development plans in China.