This study examined young children's growth, over time, in phonics knowledge, word-recognition, and fluent oral reading. Correlations and causal relationships among these variables were explored in an attempt to identify the foundational knowledge and skills needed for reading fluency. Measures of phonics knowledge, word-recognition development, word-recognition accuracy and speed, and fluency in story reading were obtained from first-grade, second-grade, and third-grade students in February and again in November when they had advanced to a higher grade. Causal relationships were examined and are suggested between two related variables, if a change in one variable measured at one time tends to precede a change in the other variable measured at a later time. Cross-lagged panel analyses were used to test for such a pattern between variables. The findings suggested that phonics knowledge and word recognition are precursors of fluency. The data suggests that students' word recognition has a causal effect on their reading speed and accuracy growth, and that their phonics knowledge has a causal effect on their word-recognition growth. These findings are consistent with a theoretical model that posits that phonemic awareness is a necessary, though not sufficient, condition for the development of phonics knowledge; phonics knowledge is a necessary condition for word recognition; word recognition is a necessary condition for fluency; and fluency is a necessary condition for reading comprehension.
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J. Lloyd Eldredge (2005) studied this question.
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