Estimation model of Jakarta MRT phase 1 project cost overrun for the risk based next phase project funding purpose

The preliminary estimate of Jakarta MRT project cost overrun was considered high by the Provincial Government of DKI Jakarta. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the value of the change to see the reasonableness of the Contractor's claim value registered until 2016 and the allocation of contingencies against the possibility of any other claim risk until the project completion in March 2019. The purpose of this study is to analyse the risks that cause cost overrun in MRT Jakarta Phase 1 project that has been allocated and not yet been allocated. In analysing the project risk contingencies, this research method uses Monte Carlo analysis using @Risk software. Survey in this research is conducted to get answers to any risks that impact to the project cost overrun by doing questionnaires or interviews to respondents experienced in MRT Jakarta project or other railway projects. The results of this study are expected to become an evaluation in estimating the final cost of MRT Jakarta phase 1 project and can be a reference for risk-based budget estimation to the next phase of MRT Jakarta project.