Quantifying the Extent to Which Junior Performance Predicts Senior Performance in Olympic Sports: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

The results suggest that junior performance has very little, if any, predictive value for senior performance. The findings run counter to claims from traditional theories of both giftedness and expertise. From an applied perspective, talent selection typically begins around puberty or younger-age ranges where youth performance is uncorrelated or negatively correlated with later senior performance. The evidence presented here raises serious questions about the use of junior performance for talent selection purposes. A PRISMA-P protocol was registered at https://osf.io/gck4a/ .