• The Urban Futures method can be successfully applied to complex social phenomena. • 22 effective urban regeneration projects are uncovered in 7 shrinking cities, with an overall 57% chance to deliver the intended benefits in 40 years' time. • Business-orientated projects are found to be most resilient vis-à-vis the future. • People-orientated projects are least likely to perform well by 2060. • Place-orientated projects fall in between the other two types of urban regeneration.
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Vlad Mykhnenko (2023) studied this question.
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