Beyond-the-Meter: Unaccounted Sources of Methane Emissions in the Natural Gas Distribution Sector

The United States Environmental Protection Agency maintains an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Methane (CH₄), a potent gas with a global warming potential 86-125× that of carbon dioxide (CO₂) over a twenty-year period, is the main component of natural gas (NG). As NG becomes an increasingly larger percentage of the energy resources used in the United States, it is ever more important to evaluate the CH₄ emissions inventory. However, the inventory also does not account for all possible sources of CH₄ leaks, contributing to uncertainty in the national CH₄ inventory. Discrepancies between top-down and bottom-up inventories of CH₄ emissions imply that there are significant unaccounted-for sources of CH₄ leaks, especially over cities. Diffuse CH₄ plumes above cities that are not attributable to distribution pipelines or other NG infrastructure suggest many small beyond-the-meter leaks together contribute to large emissions. Here, we evaluate the distribution sector of the CH₄ emissions inventory and make suggestions to improve the inventory by analyzing end-user emissions. Preliminary research into beyond-the-meter emissions suggests that while individually small, the appliances and buildings that make up the residential sector could contribute significantly to national scale emissions. Furnaces are the most leak-prone of appliances, contributing to 0.14% of total CH₄ emissions from the NG sector in the United States. Combining measurements from whole house emissions and steady-state operation of appliances, we estimate that residential homes and appliances could release 9.1 Gg CH₄ yearly in the United States, totaling over 2% of the CH₄ released from the NG sector. While factors such as appliance age and usage, climate, and residential setting could influence the emissions profile of individual appliances, these preliminary estimates justify further exploration of beyond-the-meter emissions.