Cost-optimal dimensioning and operation of a solar PV–BESS–heat pump-based on-grid energy system for a Nordic climate townhouse

Buildings and the construction sector make up about a third of the final energy consumption and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, offering a significant potential for emission reductions. This paper investigates the conversion of a Nordic oil-heated townhouse into a carbon-neutral one. Five different energy efficiency (EE) alternatives including, for example, different heat pump types and their dimensioning are studied. The electricity demand of the EE alternatives is aimed to be covered as cost-effectively as possible with an on-grid system based on solar photovoltaics (PV) and a battery energy storage system (BESS). The cost-optimal dimensioning of the components is based on the 30-year life cycle cost (LCC), and the work is carried out using an hourly level simulation model developed in MATLAB. To maximize the profitability of the BESS, an intelligent control algorithm based on linear programming is implemented based on a day-ahead electricity spot price for the years 2020–2022 and “perfectly” forecasted power demand and generation data. The data used in the simulation consist of measured electricity consumption, simulated heat generation based on annual oil consumption, and simulated solar PV power generation. It was observed that an about 60% partial-power-dimensioned ground source heat pump together with a solar PV system provides almost always the lowest LCC. However, the BESS was shown to be profitable at the current investment costs for the first time at the 2022 electricity prices, enabling a capacity of 210–230 kWh. On average, the cost-optimized on-grid electricity system was found to reduce the 30-year life cycle costs by 6%, 20%, and 85% with the electricity prices of 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively. When the price of electricity is exceptionally high, it may be justified to implement more extensive energy efficiency improvements, such as additional insulation of the building envelope. Nevertheless, the impact on the life cycle costs is marginal. In addition, the cost-optimized solar PV capacity has increased more than sevenfold between 2020 and 2022.