Climate Crisis and the Rise of Girl Child Marriage in Marsabit County, Kenya

This manuscript interrogates how climate stress, household poverty, and the dowry/bride price converge to commodify girls and precipitate girl child marriage in Marsabit County, Kenya. It relies solely on findings from a mixed?methods study’s dataset in 296 household surveys (98.7% response), 16 key informant interviews (80%), 9 focus group discussions (90%), and a transect walk across villages in Buri Aramia, Balla, Korr, Namarei, and Ngurnit Community Health Units. Quantitative analyses (descriptives, chi?square tests, cross?tabs, and hierarchical binary logistic regression) and qualitative themes are integrated to explain mechanisms and pathways. Three results stand out, the first, drought?linked livelihood strain and sparse local markets observed during the transect walk coincide with household narratives of using marriage as a coping strategy to obtain bride wealth, reduce dependents, and manage risk. Second, economic pressure is a strong, independent predictor of earlier marriage: each one?unit increase in the economic composite is associated with more than double the odds of marrying at 18 or older (Odd Ratio (OR)=2.429; 95% Confidence Interval (CI)≈1.363–4.330; p=0.003) that is, stronger economic capacity protects against girl child marriage. Third, commodification of girls is explicit in community accounts and survey frequencies: the practice of exchanging dowry/bride price and the perception that marriage reduces household burden are widely endorsed as “likely” drivers (≥75–90% across related items). Based only on the study’s evidence, climate?exacerbated poverty intensifies a transactional logic around girls’ bodies and futures. Effective measures therefore must be locally grounded to protect schooling continuity during drought months, reduce reliance on dowry through livelihood support, and shift norms via community leadership while enforcing consent and age standards.