ABSTRACT The catchments located at high altitudes are significant sources of freshwater in the downstream societies but are becoming susceptible to the interactive effects of land use and climatic change. This study considers the effect of these control factors on the water yield and runoff dynamics at the Kunhar River Basin in northern Pakistan. This paper simulates past and future hydrological dynamics using the process‐based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), downscaled CMIP5 climate forecasts, and CA‐Markov‐based land use projections. The model exhibited high accuracy, with NSE = 0.89; R 2 = 0.75; PBIAS = −2.04% during calibration and NSE = 0.83; R 2 = 0.74; PBIAS = −13.51% during validation. Observations show that cropland convention to forest as well as urbanisation has transformed the runoff dynamics by 15%–30% in terms of total volume. The future projections under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios therefore indicate that average annual water yield will decrease by 35%–48%, with seasonal redistribution characterised by increased winter runoff and reduced summer runoff. The results exhibit significant differences in the pattern of streamflow, and such differences impact the well‐being of ecosystems, water supply security, and risk levels of floods. In terms of mountainous areas, this study develops a practical framework of climate resilience initiatives and sustainable watershed management.
Soomro et al. (2026) studied this question.