Determinants of Voting Behavior in the 2023 Polish Parliamentary Election

Following two terms of Eurosceptic right rule under Law and Justice (PiS), a new coalition government led by the Civic Coalition (KO) emerged in Poland in 2023. This election marked a unique case of a dominant radical-right populist party losing power through democratic means, despite extensive institutional advantages and media capture. This article investigates individual-level factors that played a role in shaping voters’ choices during this election. It first briefly surveys the political stances of the major parties and the programmatic coherence in the two alternative party setups. It then analyzes party electorates through sociodemographic, geographic, and attitudinal lenses. Finally, it employs regression analysis to pinpoint the variables that most inform vote choice. By analyzing individual-level determinants in this context, the study advances voter behavior theory, showing how classic factors—sociodemographic characteristics, religiosity, economic evaluations, and ideological self-placement—interact with context-specific concerns about democratic norms. The findings indicate that in critical elections, voters’ choices are shaped not only by material interests and social structure, but also by deeply held democratic values and perceptions of systemic threats, enriching our understanding of how electoral behavior can respond to the challenges of democratic consolidation.