Societal and legal responses to adolescent sexual offending are often punitive rather than developmentally informed, assuming that adolescents who have sexually offended (AHSO) pose a high risk of sexual recidivism. This study examined long-term outcomes of 351 AHSO (aged 12–18 years) assessed in an outpatient forensic setting. Follow-up averaged 22 years, with participants reaching a mean age of 37. Overall, 62.4% reoffended, primarily for property (45.0%), justice administration (43.9%), or nonsexual violent offenses (40.7%). Sexual recidivism was far less frequent (13.4%), occurring mainly in the early years and stabilizing at low levels. Survival analyses indicated that while sexual recidivism plateaued, nonsexual reoffending showed more sustained patterns over time. These findings challenge assumptions about enduring sexual risk among AHSO and call into question the proportionality of lengthy, restrictive sanctions.
Carpentier et al. (Thu,) studied this question.