Bridging the Policy Gap: A Dual-Perspective Techno-Economic Analysis of Rooftop Solar PV Viability for Self-Consumption in Bhutan

Bhutan’s hydropower-reliant electricity supply faces seasonal imbalances, with a winter deficit prompting costly imports from India at tariffs of up to $0.09/kWh. Despite the estimated solar potential of 12 GW, PV deployment remains limited. This study presents a demand-driven techno-economic assessment of a 150.8 kWp rooftop PV system for the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport using high-resolution hourly load data and PVsyst simulation. Three operational configurations are evaluated: self-consumption without export, self-consumption with export, and a battery energy storage system (BESS) introduced to mitigate curtailed energy. The system is expected to generate 252 MWh annually, achieving self-sufficiency and Self-Consumption Ratios of around 60%. Without export, the performance ratio (PR) is reduced to 51% due to significant curtailment, resulting in a negative Net Present Value (NPV) of −$33,687.5 and a Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of $0.0682/kWh. Enabling export raises the PR to 85.62%, improving the NPV to $27,965.42, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) to 8.07%, and the LCOE to $0.0405/kWh. A 200 kWh BESS, sized based on surplus energy and nighttime demand, increases self-consumption and self-sufficiency to 75% and 73%, respectively. However, the LCOE rises to $0.0841/kWh, limiting economic viability under current tariff structures. The results reveal a structural mismatch between prosumer-level economics and system-level benefits, underscoring a need for improved compensation and targeted policy support in Bhutan and similar hydropower-dependent systems.