The impact of climate change on a large industrial winter road operation in Northern Canada

Winter roads are essential seasonal transportation routes for communities and industries in sub-arctic regions; however, their operational viability is threatened by climate change. Canada has the longest winter road in the world, the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR). This paper uses Freezing Degree Days (FDD) as a key indicator for the opening dates and the cumulative downward surface thermal radiation for the closing dates of the TCWR. By analysing changes in temperature and cumulative downward surface thermal radiation, we observe alterations in the opening and closing dates, ultimately shortening the operational period of the TCWR. A shortened operational period will lead to no viable operations by 2080 and the disappearance of the TCWR before the end of the 21st century. With the TCWR gone, there will be a significant social and economic impact on the region, resulting in job losses and a contraction in GDP in Canada’s Northwest Territories. • We examine the impact of climate change on the operational season of the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road in Northern Canada. • Freezing Degree Days (FDD) are derived from ERA5 and CEDA climate data to evaluate winter road viability over two decades. • Quantile delta mapping is utilised for bias correction between datasets, improving the precision of temperature forecasts. • The study indicates a trend towards shorter operational periods, linked to rising average temperatures and climate model predictions. • Findings support adaptation strategies for preserving winter road infrastructure under changing climate conditions.