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April 20, 2026World Journal of Surgical Oncology0 citationsOpen Access

Risk Factor and Prediction Model for Malignant Pancreatic Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm

Risk factor and prediction model for malignant pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm

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Authors

GYGuo YuZGZihao GuoXXXiaoxiao Xu

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Overview

Study identifies predictors of malignant transformation in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm, indicating diagnostic improvement.

Key Points

  • This research aims to identify risk factors for malignant transformation in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) and develop a predictive model.
  • Included patients with IPMN from Shanghai General Hospital, 2012-2025.
  • Patients were divided into benign and malignant groups based on characteristics.
  • Used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify risk factors.
  • Developed a nomogram using firth penalty logistic regression to predict malignancy risk.
  • Evaluated the predictive model using receiver operating characteristic and calibration curves.
  • Identified four independent predictors of malignancy: CA19-9 elevation, classified as MD/MT, MTD_Log, and MPD_bc.
  • Nomogram achieved an area under the curve of 0.870 in training and 0.808 in test set.
  • Model demonstrated strong predictive ability and clinical usefulness.

Cite This Study

Yu et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69e5c38303c293991402952ahttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12957-026-04356-w
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