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April 20, 2026Geophysical Research LettersOpen Access

Can the International Reference Ionosphere Model Predict Long‐Term Trends in the Ionosphere?

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Authors

APA. PignalberiMPM. PietrellaTAT. Alberti

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Overview

Evaluates the IRI model's ability to predict ionospheric long-term trends, suggesting improvements are needed.

Key Points

  • The research aims to assess how well the IRI model can predict long-term variability in ionospheric critical frequency.
  • Evaluated model predictions using two proxies: solar activity (R 12 ) and effective ionospheric index (IG 12 ).
  • Compared model outputs to hourly data from the Rome ionosonde over 1980-2022.
  • Used empirical mode decomposition to analyze long-term trends after removing short-term variability.
  • The IG 12 -driven model accurately reproduced long-term trends over the entire timespan.
  • The R 12 -driven model performed well until the late 1990s but failed afterward.
  • A monotonic decreasing trend was observed in both measured and modeled critical frequencies.

Cite This Study

Pignalberi et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69e5c3ce03c2939914029903https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl121949
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