What question did this study set out to answer?

This analysis investigates how political parties and incumbency influence election outcomes in a hybrid regime, particularly in Hong Kong.

April 22, 2026Open Access

Incumbency Advantage and the Role of Political Parties in the Electoral Authoritarianism: Evidence From Hong Kong Legislative Council Election (1998–2016)

Key Points

This analysis investigates how political parties and incumbency influence election outcomes in a hybrid regime, particularly in Hong Kong.
Analyzed candidate-level data from Hong Kong's Legislative Council elections from 1998 to 2016
Examined the impact of party organizational resources and competition structure on electoral results
Evaluated the role of incumbency within a mixed electoral system
Identified a significant incumbency effect that functions more as a background factor than a primary determinant of success
Found that larger grassroots networks positively correlate with election wins, while increased party strength shows diminishing returns
Noted that greater party fragmentation reduces overall chances of winning, indicating systemic entry constraints

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study reframes Hong Kong's Legislative Council geographical constituency elections as a case of limited competition produced by institutional design. Using candidate‐level data, we examine how organizational resources and competition structure shape electoral outcomes under a mixed system that combines proportional representation in GCs with functional constituencies. This study finds a strong incumbency effect present but it operates as a background regularity rather than the decisive mechanism. Secondly, party organizational capacity matters asymmetrically: larger grassroots networks—as proxied by the number of same‐party District Council members—are positively associated with winning, while greater same‐party LegCo strength exhibits diminishing, consistent with elite crowding and intra‐camp competition. Third, increasing party fragmentation and candidate crowding depress overall winning probabilities, indicating systemic constraints on entry and cross‐party evaluation. The analysis provides a historical trend for understanding electoral dynamics in a hybrid regime and offers comparable evidence on how institutional rules and meso‐level party infrastructures structure competition.

Incumbency Advantage and the Role of Political Parties in the Electoral Authoritarianism: Evidence From Hong Kong Legislative Council Election (1998–2016)

Key Points

Abstract

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