Peace With Implicit Recognition: The Model of Two Germanys as a Solution to the Kosovo-Serbia Dispute

More than a decade after the EU launched the Belgrade–Pristina dialogue, Kosovo–Serbia relations remain unresolved despite the ICJ’s 2010 advisory opinion. The 2023 Brussels Agreement and its Ohrid Annex – presented as a Balkan analogue to the 1972 interGerman Basic Treaty and framed as a breakthrough grounded in indirect recognition, following a 2022 diplomatic initiative by the United States, France, Germany, and the EU that explicitly invoked the Basic Treaty as a model – were neither signed nor implemented, thereby exposing the structural fragility of an externally imposed, status-neutral framework. While hailed as a possible Zeitenwende for Balkan diplomacy, the Ohrid Agreement (2023), inspired by this framework, was neither signed nor implemented, as Serbia framed it as a political declaration rather than a binding treaty. This paper argues that applying the ‘Two Germanys model’ to Kosovo and Serbia is conceptually flawed: unlike the inter-German settlement, the Brussels– Ohrid framework lacks reciprocal political will, enforcement mechanisms, and a credible institutional end-state. A comparative analysis shows how the Ohrid Annex entrenches asymmetric obligations on Kosovo while allowing Serbia to preserve ambiguity and obstruct Kosovo’s international integration..