Can Europe Deliver NATO’s Five Percent?: Fiscal Constraints, Political Feasibility and Security Beyond Spending Targets

The adoption of NATO's new 5% defence spending target reflects shifting US strategic priorities and places heavy demands on European allies.This article assesses whether European NATO members can realistically meet this target, combining evidence on past and projected military spending, fiscal constraints, party programmes and voter preferences.It argues that focusing narrowly on expenditure targets risks obscuring more fundamental challenges.In a security environment dominated by hybrid threats, Europe's ability to enhance security and peace depends less on uniform spending benchmarks than on effective capabilities, societal resilience and coordinated contributions across countries.