What question did this study set out to answer?

The research questions whether European NATO members can realistically meet the 5% defense spending target amidst various constraints.

April 23, 2026Intereconomics0 citationsOpen Access

Can Europe Deliver NATO’s Five Percent?: Fiscal Constraints, Political Feasibility and Security Beyond Spending Targets

ABArmin BolouriBerlin School of Economics and Law TLTim LohseBerlin School of Economics and Law SQSalmai QariBerlin School of Economics and Law

Key Points

The research questions whether European NATO members can realistically meet the 5% defense spending target amidst various constraints.
Assessment of past and projected military spending trends
Analysis of fiscal constraints and political party programmes
Evaluation of voter preferences regarding defense spending
European NATO members face significant barriers in meeting the 5% target due to fiscal constraints.
Emphasis on spending alone overlooks essential security challenges posed by hybrid threats.
Effective security relies more on military capabilities and societal resilience than uniform expenditure targets.

Abstract

The adoption of NATO's new 5% defence spending target reflects shifting US strategic priorities and places heavy demands on European allies.This article assesses whether European NATO members can realistically meet this target, combining evidence on past and projected military spending, fiscal constraints, party programmes and voter preferences.It argues that focusing narrowly on expenditure targets risks obscuring more fundamental challenges.In a security environment dominated by hybrid threats, Europe's ability to enhance security and peace depends less on uniform spending benchmarks than on effective capabilities, societal resilience and coordinated contributions across countries.

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