Improving the Methodology for the Integral Assessment of Regional Tax Risk From the Shadow Economy to Increase Local Budget Revenues

This article develops an integral regional tax risk indicator designed to identify the fiscal reserves that can be mobilized from shadow economic activity for the benefit of local budgets in Uzbekistan. The proposed methodology combines local budget revenue performance, cash and cashless turnover patterns, tax discipline, payment-system formalization, and control results into a single normalized and policy-operational index that is suitable for territorial differentiation. Its practical value lies in linking risk scoring not only to enforcement intensity, but also to preventive measures, digital formalization, and quarterly local budget planning.