Analysis reveals credit supply increases in swing states during elections, indicating non-partisan preferences for continuity.
We provide evidence of a political lending cycle in U.S. presidential elections characterized by an increase in credit supply by large banks in swing states. The credit expansion is independent of the incumbent's party, revealing a non‐partisan preference for political continuity. Growth in mortgage and small business loans is substantial, but does not affect credit quality.
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Dentler et al. (2026) studied this question.
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