Reluctant Partisans, Not Undercover Partisans: Why Americans Increasingly Identify as Independent

Abstract In the United States, partisanship has a greater impact on political behavior than any other social identity. However, the proportion of Americans who actively identify with a party, as opposed to Independents who “lean” toward one, is at its lowest point in decades. Existing research offers two explanations for why: First, being seen as partisan is not socially desirable, so people identify as Independent despite covertly preferring one party. Second, nonidentification may be a result of viewing both parties negatively. Using eight waves of panel data from 2016 to 2022, I compare the strength of these competing explanations. I only find support for the explanation-based evaluations of the parties. People switch from partisans to Independents when they view their former party more negatively, not when they seek to make a good impression.