Multinomial Logistic Model to Estimate Weapon Types in Intentional Homicides in Ecuador; [Modelo Logístico Multinomial para Estimar el Tipo de Arma en el Cometimiento de Homicidios Intencionales en el Ecuador]

Since 2018, extreme violence in Ecuador has increased significantly. One variable that depicts this critical situation is the growth of the Intentional Homicides Rate. This fact confirms the position of Ecuador as one of the most violent countries in LatinAmerica, which is the most violent region in the world. According to police records, several variables are involved in the occurrences of homicides. On the one hand, the type of weapon used to commit Intentional Homicide plays a fundamental role in the corresponding judicial process. On the other hand, explanatory variables related to this crime, such as its type, location, day and time of occurrence, province, gender and age of the victim can be considered to estimate the probability of using a specific type of weapon to commit an Intentional Homicide. To estimate this, we propose a multinomial logistic model. The results will help the authorities incharge of public security to develop an optimal strategy to prevent, react and investigate this kind of crime.