Indonesia is located in one of the most seismically active regions in the world and frequently experiences destructive earthquakes, including in the Jakarta area. This study assesses seismic hazard and economic impacts in South Jakarta’s Kebayoran Baru district through two integrated frameworks: Earthquake Risk Scenario (ERS) to assess seismic hazard and risk assessment, and an Economic Impact Scenario (EIS) to evaluate potential losses in productive business sectors. This study enhances understanding of economic risk distribution in South Jakarta, contributing to the fields of urban risk assessment, disaster economics, and infrastructure resilience. The study integrates Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) data, geological conditions, business asset valuation, GIS-based fuzzy logic, longitudinal GRDP data, qualitative interviews, and a standardized cost estimation model. Results indicate that high seismic hazard zones in Kebayoran Baru overlap with clusters of high-value business assets, particularly in finance, IT, legal services, and retail, yielding risk index values up to 0.704. Despite this, service-oriented industries demonstrate strong resilience due to their reliance on digital infrastructure and flexible work models, with disruptions largely limited to temporary access and equipment losses. Reconstruction cost estimates for 214 business facilities provide a replicable framework for post-disaster financial planning, ranging from IDR 204.7 million to IDR 3.06 billion per building. The study bridges scientific analysis with actionable policy recommendations, equipping decision-makers with tools to identify high-risk areas and implement targeted disaster mitigation and resilience strategies.
Prasetio et al. (2026) studied this question.