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April 26, 20260 citations

Abortion Bans and Maternal, Pregnancy-Related, and Pregnancy-Associated Mortality in 14 US States, 2016-2023: Estimated Impacts Amid Substantial Measurement Challenges.

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SBSuzanne O. BellAFAlexander FranksAOAmy Ozinsky

Key Points

  • To explore the relationship between abortion bans and changes in maternal, pregnancy-related, and pregnancy-associated mortality rates.
  • Analyzed national vital statistics data from 2016 to 2023.
  • Employed a Bayesian panel model to assess mortality in 14 US states with abortion bans by 2022.
  • Accounted for temporal trends and state-specific factors in the analysis.
  • Observed a potential 9.2% increase in pregnancy-associated deaths, equating to 68 excess deaths.
  • Found a higher rate of 3.3 additional deaths per 100,000 live births than expected.
  • No significant increase in maternal mortality was detected.

Abstract

Objectives. To examine the association of abortion bans with changes in maternal, pregnancy-related, and pregnancy-associated mortality. Methods. Using national vital statistics data (2016-2023), we used a Bayesian panel model to examine maternal, pregnancy-related, and pregnancy-associated mortality in 14 US states that implemented abortion bans by the end of 2022. Models accounted for temporal trends and state-specific factors. Results. Among the 14 states with abortion bans, there was some evidence of a potential 9.2% (95% credible interval CI = -1.6, 20.7) increase in the number of pregnancy-associated deaths above expectation, equivalent to 68 (95% CI = -13, 147) excess deaths; the rate was also higher than expected, with 3.3 (95% CI = -2.6, 9.0) additional deaths per 100 000 live births. Relative changes in pregnancy-related mortality were similar in magnitude but had greater uncertainty. There was no detectable increase in maternal mortality. Conclusions. Abortion bans may be associated with an increase in pregnancy-associated and pregnancy-related mortality, although data limitations and chance variation in these rare outcomes constrain the certainty of these and other findings. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print April 23, 2026:e1-e10. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2026.308465).

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Cite This Study

Bell et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69edac2e4a46254e215b3ee2https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.2026.308465
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