Spatial Disparities and Demographic Vulnerability of Small Settlements in Serbia: A Typological Framework for Place-Based Territorial Governance

Small settlements in Serbia are confronted with long-term processes of depopulation, ageing, and migration, characterised by pronounced spatial and structural heterogeneity. This raises questions about the effectiveness of uniform development policies and underscores the need for a differentiated, place-based approach. The aim of this paper is to identify the demographic heterogeneity of small settlements (with fewer than 100 inhabitants) and to analyse its implications for decentralised territorial development. The research is based on the analysis of 1302 settlements in Serbia, using 26 demographic, socio-economic, and geographical indicators. The methodological framework is based on principal component analysis and cluster analysis, complemented by nonparametric tests and logistic regression. The results indicate pronounced population ageing, low labour potential, and a clear spatial polarisation between accessible and peripheral settlements. Four clearly differentiated types of small settlements are identified. It is concluded that demographic heterogeneity represents a key determinant of development capacity, indicating the need for territorially sensitive and differentiated development policies. In this context, decentralisation and tailored development models may contribute to the revitalisation and long-term sustainability of rural areas.