Exploring Variable Influences on the Compressive Strength of Alkali-Activated Concrete Using Ensemble Tree, Deep Learning Methods and SHAP-Based Interpretation

Growing concerns about global climate change and its negative consequences for communities have put immense pressure on the building industry, which is one of the primary sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Due to the environmental issues associated with the manufacture of sustainable construction materials, alkali-activated concrete (AAC) has emerged as a competitive alternative to cement. To predict the compressive strength (CS) of AAC, four machine learning (ML) models, namely, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), were employed in this study using 193 data points. The input variables include Precursor “P” (kg/m3), Blast Furnace Slag “BFS ratio”, Sodium hydroxide “Na” (kg/m3), silicate modulus “Ms”, water content “W” (kg/m3), fine aggregate “FA” (kg/m3), coarse aggregate “A” (kg/m3), and curing time “CT” (day), with CS (MPa) as the output variable. The dataset was checked for stationarity and then normalized to decrease data redundancy and increase integrity. Furthermore, three model combinations were developed based on the relationship between the input and target variables. The XGB-M3 model outperformed all other models with a high degree of accuracy, according to the study’s findings. Specifically, the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) was 0.9577, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 14.95% during the calibration phase. SHAP, an explainable AI approach that provides interpretable insights into complex AI systems by assigning feature importance to model predictions, was employed. Results suggest the higher predictions from the XGB-M3 and RF-M3 models were largely driven by curing time (CT).