Coastal wetlands are critical blue carbon reservoirs, yet the depth-resolved impacts of warming on belowground carbon dynamics remain poorly understood. Over the course of an 8-year in situ experiment, we investigated plant-derived carbon inputs, soil carbon losses via respiration, and microbially mediated carbon fixation across a 60 cm soil profile under a projected 2°C atmospheric warming scenario. Plant carbon fixation (above- and belowground net primary productivity) and soil respiration exhibited synchronized responses to warming, with an initial increase, followed by a decline in the mid-term, and no significant response in the later stages. Soil and microbial respiration stabilized after prolonged exposure to elevated temperatures, as these processes were constrained by substrate availability. In contrast, phospholipid fatty acid profiling, amino sugar biomarkers, and metagenome-assembled genomes consistently indicated a greater than one-third reduction in microbial carbon fixation within subsoils (40-60 cm). Our fully factorial, depth-stratified warming design reveals the particular vulnerability of deep soil microbial carbon retention to long-term climate warming, independent of shifts in plant input or respiratory carbon loss. This work highlights underappreciated pathways influencing soil blue carbon dynamics in a changing world.
Xiao et al. (2026) studied this question.