Shape Dependence of the Kinetic Deflection of Asteroids

An asteroid’s shape can significantly influence the success of a deflection attempt via a kinetic impactor due to the effect that local topography has on the efficiency of the momentum transfer to the asteroid. Additional variation and uncertainty in the transfer of momentum are introduced by stochastic system inputs, such as the impact location of the spacecraft. This paper first uses numerical simulations to verify an analytical impact model that incorporates the effect of nonspherical asteroid shape models for kinetic impact scenarios. Next, uncertainties in the impact location and asteroid material properties are considered in conducting a broader survey of the effects of system stochastics on the deflection of real asteroid shapes. Several additional semianalytical models are introduced, which significantly improve the tractability of the stochastic analysis, and the Sobol’ sensitivity indices are presented as a means of quantifying the sensitivity of the uncertainty in the imparted velocity to each of the stochastic inputs.