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April 27, 2026Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health0 citationsOpen Access

Hotspot Mapping, Spatiotemporal Clustering and Forecasting of Malaria Incidence in Uganda, 2014–2023: Strategies to Inform Targeted Public Health Interventions

GPGeorge PaasiJAJimmy Patrick AlunyoANAlice Nakiyemba

Key Points

  • To analyze malaria incidence and identify hotspots in Uganda from 2014 to 2023, informing public health strategies.
  • Analyzed malaria transmission data across different regions of Uganda from 2014 to 2023.
  • Utilized spatiotemporal clustering techniques for hotspot identification.
  • Implemented forecasting models for malaria incidence prediction.
  • Identified persistent and sporadic malaria hotspots in eastern and northeastern Uganda, with declining trends in the southwest.
  • Forecasts show a modestly increasing baseline incidence and seasonal peaks, suggesting areas needing targeted interventions.
  • Recommendations include intensified control in high burden districts and continued investment in declining areas.

Abstract

Malaria transmission in Uganda remains highly heterogeneous, with consecutive, sporadic and oscillating hot spots in eastern and north eastern regions and sustained declines in parts of the southwest. National forecasts indicate continued high incidence with a modestly increasing baseline and sharply defined seasonal peaks. These findings support intensified, geographically targeted control in high burden districts, sustained investment in areas with declining trends, and the use of routine forecasting and temporal decomposition to guide adaptive planning toward national malaria control targets for 2030.

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Cite This Study

Paasi et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69eefc6dfede9185760d3745https://doi.org/10.1007/s44197-026-00562-7
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