Influence of Fluids on Earthquakes Based on Numerical Modeling

Abstract The strength and sliding behavior of faults in the crust is largely controlled by friction and effective stress, which is itself modulated by fluid pressure. Most earthquake models assume a fixed pore fluid pressure despite widespread evidence that is varies strongly in time due to changes in permeability. Here we explore how dynamic changes in pore pressure influence the properties of earthquakes in the upper crust. To study this problem we develop a two dimensional model that incorporates slow tectonic loading and fluid pressure generation during the interseismic period with frictional sliding on a thrust fault whose permeability evolves with slip. We find that the presence of relatively modest fluid overpressures tends to reduce coseismic slip, stress drop, maximum sliding velocity, rupture velocity and the earthquake recurrence time compared to models without fluids. Our model produces a wide range of sliding velocities from rapid to slow earthquakes, which occur due to the presence of high pore pressures prior to rupture. The models also show evidence for aftershocks that are driven by fluid transfer along the fault plane after the mainshock. Overall, this study shows that fluids can exert an important influence on earthquakes in the crust, which is mostly due to modulation of the effective stress and variations in permeability, and to a lesser extent to poro‐elastic coupling.