Basin-Scale Signal Detection for Early Hurricane Risk Identification

Hurricanes do not emerge randomly from local conditions. They arise from basin-scale instability regimes that can be detected days in advance. We introduce a signal-based approach to hurricane risk detection using large-scale atmospheric indicators. Rather than simulating storm formation directly, the method identifies basin-wide basin-scale instability regime patterns—particularly divergence between total column water vapour and outgoing longwave radiation—that precede tropical cyclone genesis. Analysis of the 2025 North Atlantic season shows consistent spatial organisation of risk fields and early warning signals emerging several days before storm formation. Results suggest that hurricane genesis is not purely local, but linked to evolving basin-scale geometries. The application is proposed as a complementary early-warning layer to existing meteorological models.