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April 29, 2026Law Probability and RiskOpen Access

A variance decomposition approach to inconclusives in forensic black box studies

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Authors

ALAmanda LubyJKJoseph B. Kadane

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Overview

This analysis examines error rates and inconclusive findings in forensic examinations of fingerprints, suggesting new evaluation methods.

Key Points

  • To assess how inconclusive responses affect error rate calculations in forensic black box studies.
  • Analyzed patterns of inconclusive responses in black box studies on fingerprints and bullets.
  • Computed raw item and examiner variances.
  • Utilized logistic regression to evaluate examiner performance across items.
  • Error rates in black box studies are lower than failure rates considering inconclusives.
  • The extent of difference in error rates is influenced by the specific study examined.

Cite This Study

Luby et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69f154e0879cb923c494515ahttps://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgag001
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