Satellite-Observed Acceleration in the Occurrence of Compound Marine Heatwave and Phytoplankton Bloom Events in the Global Coastal Ocean

The occurrence of marine heatwaves (MHWs) and phytoplankton blooms is accelerating under climate change, yet the frequency and drivers of their compound co-occurrence remain poorly understood. Using coastal-optimized satellite observations from 2003–2020, we mapped global compound MHW–phytoplankton bloom (MHW-PB) events across coastal large marine ecosystems and quantified their spatiotemporal trends and environmental predictors. Compound events are increasing at 4.8% yr−1, driven primarily by a 6.5% yr−1 rise in MHW frequency; a temporal shuffle test confirms this trend falls below random co-occurrence expectation, indicating biological suppression actively constrains compound event growth. The compound independence factor (CIF) reveals latitudinal heterogeneity: low-latitude upwelling systems show MHW–PB mutual exclusivity, while high-latitude and eutrophic coastal regions show positive co-occurrence tendency. Interpretable machine learning further shows that nutrient availability dominates bloom responses at low latitudes whereas light dominates at high latitudes, with MHW intensity exhibiting nutrient-dependent non-linear associations with bloom probability. Paradoxically, compound frequency accelerates nearly twice as fast in low latitudes (6.1% yr−1) as in high latitudes (3.5% yr−1), driven by rapid tropical MHW acceleration. These diverging regimes signal dual ecological risks: trophic mismatches in upwelling systems and escalating hypoxia and harmful algal bloom hazards in eutrophic coastal waters.