India's energy security imperatives and Central Asia's vast hydrocarbon endowments present a compelling strategic alignment that has nonetheless yielded negligible actual energy trade across three decades of diplomatic engagement. This article offers a comprehensive policy analysis of India-Central Asia energy relations from the post-Soviet transition of 1991 through the geopolitically turbulent mid-2020s, examining why the gap between strategic aspiration and structural reality has persisted and what conditions may now exist to close it. Drawing on the historical evolution of bilateral and multilateral engagement, the article systematically analyses the structural impediments to energy connectivity principally the Pakistan transit barrier and the chronic instability of Afghanistan before evaluating the two principal pipeline frameworks: the long-stalled Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline and the increasingly operational International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) anchored by India's investment in Iran's Chabahar port. The article further assesses India's engagement through multilateral platforms, particularly the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the India-Central Asia Summit format inaugurated in 2022, examining their institutional architecture, achievements, and limitations. The study finds that while the structural barriers separating India from Central Asia remain largely intact, a convergence of factors the disruption of Eurasian connectivity following the Russia-Ukraine war, Central Asian states' growing interest in Indian engagement as a counterweight to Chinese dominance, and the demonstrated progress of the INSTC route has created a more auspicious strategic environment than has existed at any prior moment. The article concludes with a strategic roadmap recommending the full operationalisation of the Chabahar-INSTC corridor for energy cargo, a phased restructuring of the TAPI approach, deepened upstream equity investment through ONGC Videsh, and the leveraging of India-Central Asia Summit mechanisms to drive sector-specific energy deliverables. The analysis argues that realising the Central Asia energy relationship requires India to move decisively from declaratory diplomacy to structural investment, before a strategic window of uncommon breadth closes.
dharmendra et al. (Thu,) studied this question.
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