Integrating glacier hydrological modelling and stakeholder perceptions: implications for hydropower production in Western Norway

This study examined how glaciers contribute to streamflow and hydropower production in Norway's Jostedla River basin (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014).Model simulations suggest that glacier meltwater significantly supports the largest power plant (38.5%), whereas others rely on rainfall and groundwater flow.In June, snowmelt from areas without glacier cover supports streamflow during Warm and Dry days.However, in August, neither snow nor glacier meltwater can compensate for the rainfall deficit.We found that smaller power plants are more vulnerable to water intake fluctuations.Qualitative analysis reveals the differences between model results and stakeholder perceptions, potentially hindering effective climate adaptation and energy security efforts. Technical summary.This study utilized a series of models to simulate the surface energy balance for meltwater production, soil water balance, and runoff routing, alongside semi-structured interviews and surveys.It examined glaciers' contribution to streamflow and hydropower production, and stakeholder perceptions of these contributions in the Jostedla river basin, southwestern Norway (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014).Whereas rainfall and baseflow are the most significant contributors at all studied power plants, glacier meltwater accounted for 38.5% of the intake at the largest power plant.In June, snowmelt from non-glacier-covered areas offset low rainfall, but in August, neither snow nor glacier meltwater compensated for deficits despite a high glacier meltwater contribution.Small-pondage plants are more vulnerable than reservoir plants to seasonal and annual fluctuations in intake.