Understanding educational aspirations and expectations among refugee adolescents in Germany: Beyond social and migration-related explanations

Educational aspirations and expectations are important indicators of individuals’ educational and occupational trajectories. While existing research highlights the role of social background and migration-related factors, less is known about how these processes operate among refugees and the extent to which refugee-specific conditions matter. This study contributes to closing these gaps by drawing on data from the ReGES study ( N = 2300), which surveyed refugee adolescents who arrived in Germany between 2014 and 2018. The findings showed that a substantial share of refugee adolescents reported high, academic aspirations and expectations. Several refugee-specific conditions, particularly insecure residence status, limited German language proficiency, attendance in newcomer classes and age-inappropriate school placement, were negatively associated with both outcomes, whereas risk of posttraumatic stress disorder showed no significant association. Contrary to theoretical expectations, these factors were not consistently more strongly related to educational expectations than to aspirations. Most associations were attenuated once parental educational aspirations, pre-migration social status, and migration-related mechanisms were considered. Parental aspirations emerged as the strongest positive predictor. Overall, the study highlights the importance of refugee-specific conditions within a broader framework of social inequality and migration research and discusses their implications for educational practice and future research.