Sexual Recidivism Norms by CPORT Score: Developing Absolute and Relative Rate Estimates.

The present study provides normative data for the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) by aggregating individual-level data from six routine samples (N = 956) across Canada, Europe, and the United Kingdom. All cases were men adjudicated for child sexual abuse and exploitation material (CSAEM) offenses. Meta-analyses revealed stable predictive accuracy for the CPORT across studies (AUCs = .728 and .713, respectively, for any sexual recidivism and for CSAEM-specific recidivism). Estimated recidivism rates increased with CPORT scores, ranging from 3% to 41% for any sexual reoffending and from 2% to 32% for CSAEM-specific reoffending. Risk ratios indicated that individuals with a CPORT score of 5 reoffended at approximately five times the rate of those with the median score (CPORT = 2), with even higher rates observed among those scoring 6. Percentile norms were also derived, with a median CPORT score of 2 corresponding to the 64th percentile in terms of risk for sexual recidivism. These CPORT norms can help facilitate improved risk communication and align practice with the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model.