A Counterfactual AI-Based System for Spatio-Temporal Traffic Risk Prediction and Intelligent Safety Intervention in Smart Transportation Systems

This paper presents a novel system-oriented counterfactual deep learning framework, termed Hybrid Prediction–Intervention Neural Architecture (HPINA) for intelligent traffic accident risk prediction and proactive safety intervention in smart transportation systems. Unlike conventional data-driven models that rely solely on observational correlations, the proposed system integrates multi-domain data fusion, temporal deep representation learning, a continuous spatio-temporal risk field, and a latent-space counterfactual reasoning module within a unified decision-support architecture. The framework enables accurate prediction of traffic accident risk and simulation of “what-if” intervention scenarios to support real-time safety optimization in intelligent transportation environments. By leveraging heterogeneous inputs, including traffic dynamics, environmental conditions, road attributes, and temporal patterns, the system constructs a high-dimensional representation that captures complex nonlinear dependencies and evolving risk propagation across the network. A key innovation lies in the integration of a causal intervention mechanism and policy-guided decision layer, which jointly quantify intervention impact and identify optimal strategies for minimizing risk. The experimental results demonstrate that HPINA achieves a Test F1-score of 0.958 and an AUC of 0.989, outperforming strong baselines by up to 5.0% and 3.4%, while achieving a relative risk reduction of 0.091 and improved convergence stability with a validation loss of 0.042. These findings highlight the effectiveness of the proposed framework as an intelligent, scalable, and deployable system for real-world traffic safety management and smart city applications.