Nationwide Solar Radiation Zoning and Performance Comparison of Empirical and Deep Learning Models

Accurate solar radiation estimation is critical for optimizing solar energy applications. This study divided 819 meteorological stations in China into six solar radiation zones using k-means, hierarchical, and bisecting k-means clustering based on daily relative sunshine duration. Correlation analysis and feature importance evaluation were conducted to quantify the contributions of key meteorological variables. A comparison of models considering regional heterogeneity was performed. Six sunshine-based empirical models, three machine learning models (Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Extreme Gradient Boosting), and two deep learning models (Long Short-Term Memory and Gated Recurrent Unit) were systematically evaluated across 98 stations with observed solar radiation data. Model performance was assessed using the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and normalized RMSE (NRMSE). Results showed that k-means clustering outperformed the other two methods and was adopted for final zoning. The correlation analysis identified sunshine duration (S), extraterrestrial radiation (Ra), temperature difference (ΔT), and maximum temperature (Tmax) as the dominant influencing factors, with clear regional heterogeneity. The deep learning models, particularly LSTM (R2 = 0.939, RMSE = 1.702 MJ/m/2/d1, MAE = 1.319 MJ/m/2/d1, NRMSE = 0.046), achieved the highest accuracy, followed by GRU, XGB, SVM, and RF. Among the empirical models, Model 5 performed best in Zones 1, 3, 4, and 5, while Model 6 was optimal in Zones 2 and 6. The key novelty of the study is an integrated zoning–prediction framework for regional solar radiation estimation, combining clustering validation, correlation analysis, empirical model calibration, and deep learning benchmarking, with enhanced physical interpretability and prediction accuracy.