LESE Framework Applied to the Earth System: Structural Coherence Analysis, 20-Year Projections, and Zones of Increasing Uninhabitability (2024–2044)

Abstract. The LESE (Lattice Entropic Structural Engine) framework, previously validated across nuclear safety, plasma physics, critical infrastructure, and cosmology, is applied here to the Earth as a system. Twenty-oneobservable nodes across seven domains (Climate, Ocean, Energy, Economy, Security, Ecosystems, andGovernance) are mapped to the structural coherence index Wₘin = minWᵢj, compared against theuniversal fragility threshold W* = e-1 = 0. 36788. Current global Wₘin = 0. 098 — all ten domains below W*. Three scenarios (BAU/SSP2-4. 5, Moderate Action, Aggressive Action) are projected through 2044 using officialIPCC, IEA, IMF, SIPRI, WHO, and FAO projections. Under BAU, Wₘin falls toward zero by 2039. UnderAggressive Action, Wₘin approaches W* by 2044 but does not cross it — full structural recovery requiresdecades beyond the projection horizon. Thirteen geographic zones approaching uninhabitability are identified, with 316M people at risk by 2034 and 544M by 2044. Cumulative additional mortality 2024–2044 is estimated at28–88M (published range 35–205M), with 175–453M displaced. This document does not constitute aclimate model. It applies a structural coherence framework to publicly available data to produce a system-levelsignal. The methodology is a contribution; the underlying data belongs to IPCC, WHO, IEA, and affiliatedinstitutions. Access available upon request. Contact: galliano. brigo@yahoo. it