Assessing the Influence of Oil Income on Human Development Outcomes in Nigeria (2005–2023)

The study examined the impact of petroleum income on human development index in Nigeria. The specific objectives were to find out the impact of crude oil export income on human development index in Nigeria, to determine the impact petroleum profit tax on human development index in Nigeria, to evaluate the impact of royalty’s income on human development index in Nigeria. The study adopted ex post facto research design. The study data were sourced from Central Bank Statistical Bulletin and World Development Indicator. The stated hypotheses were analyzed using descriptive statistics, unit root test and multiple regression. The findings of this study revealed that: crude oil export income has a positive but statistically non-significant effect on human development in Nigeria (β = 0.0299, p = 0.1515); petroleum profit tax exerts a negative and significant effect on human development (β = 0.0738, p = 0.0399); royalty’s income has a negative and significant effect on human development in Nigeria (β = -0.0548, p = 0.0000). In conclusion, petroleum income, while economically substantial, does not guarantee developmental outcomes in contexts where governance and resource allocation frameworks may be weak or misaligned with developmental goals. It was recommended that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) should establish a mandatory development fund sourced from royalty payments. This fund should be transparently managed and strictly allocated to human development priorities in oil-producing communities, including healthcare delivery, educational support, and livelihood enhancement programs