The impact of Mekong transboundary water disputes on China’s relations with Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia: a strategic narrative analysis

China is one of the most influential global powers, and while extensive research exists on its global strategies, there is less focus on its role in Southeast Asia, a region where China actively seeks to assert its leadership. Most studies tend to concentrate on the U.S.-China relationship and its impact on Southeast Asia. Additionally, much of the existing literature primarily examines how major actors respond to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with an emphasis on the reception of China’s strategic narratives by different countries. In contrast, transboundary freshwater resources, particularly the Mekong River, have become an increasingly important strategic issue that remains underexplored. This thesis addresses the power dynamics in the Mekong region from the perspectives of both China and the smaller regional countries—Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia—by analysing their responses to China’s strategic narrative on the Mekong water disputes. This research makes both theoretical and empirical contributions. Theoretically, through thematic analysis and strategic narrative theory, the study reveals that the reception of China’s strategic narrative by the Mekong countries is not limited to simple acceptance or rejection, but ambiguous contestation, which consist of alignment and disagreement. Empirically, the research shows that smaller regional countries can exert strategic narrative power. By utilising methods such as agenda-setting, strategic silence, semantic adaptation, and exposure manipulation, Mekong countries able to deliberately create the ambiguity to keep the Mekong water disputes contested and influence China’s tone and actions. In conclusion, this study argues that China’s strategic narrative is insufficient to address the concerns of Mekong countries regarding water security and the ontological security related to the asymmetry in regional power distribution. The Mekong water disputes are likely to persist in the long term.